In the last installment of Peerality Broncos Blitz'd, I stated that predictions and a certain literary pinache would follow in my next entries. So, it seems that it is now time for the yearly Peerality prognostications. Last year I said Peyton Hillis was a steal, that Spencer Larsen would be good and pointed to Wesley “Mr. Atomic” Woodyard as my favorite free agent pick-up. I also predicted that Cutler would make the probowl and become an elite QB. I was correct on those fronts. I was, however, incorrect when I predicted that Dwayne Robertson would help shore up our weak d-line and that Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss would step-up for us. So, my predictions this year will probably be a mixed bag - but, here goes.
Projected Starting Line-ups:
FS -Hill
SS - Dawkins
CB - Goodman, Bailey
OLB - Ayers, Crowder
SS - Dawkins
CB - Goodman, Bailey
OLB - Ayers, Crowder
ILB - Davis, Williams
DE: McBean, Peterson
DE: McBean, Peterson
NT, Fields
LT - Clady
RT - Harris
LG - Hamilton
RG - Kuper
C - Casey w.
TE - Graham
RB - Moreno
FB - Hillis
WR - Royal
WR - Marshall or Gaffney if B.Marsh goes Awol
QB - Kyle style
All up in dat' ass wit' da resurrection: Past Busts Become Present Musts
This year, young bronco busts of old will be looked to to compete and contribute like never before. Let's hope that, like Sair from Office Space, they prove to truly be all up in dat' ass wit' da' resurrection. First, let's look at guys I think will improve and contribute. From what I hear, Jack "Mofo" Williams has been great so far and will get a long look at CB. Look for him to push Andre Goodman for time opposite Champ. Also, be on the lookout for Tim Crowder. He has taken reps with the first team base D in OTAs and, if he plays like this when the pads are on, he should be set to start on opening day at OLB.
Now, let's look at guys I'm not so sure about. Ryan McBean and Kenny Peterson, who hardly played under Shanny, will likely start for McD in the base 3-4. I don't think they will stack-up and I think younger guys like Rookie FA Chris Baker could be taking reps from these two by mid-season. Marcus Thomas could also fit into this mix and could end up being good in the 3-4. I think he will end up starting in place of either McBean or Peterson, probably Peterson. Another guy to watch for is Nic Clemons - an '08 pick who did well early then got hurt last season. Along w/ Thomas, look for Clemons to push for a starting position in camp. Finally, Jarvis Moss. Jarvis, freaking Moss. The bane of Mike Shanahan's career, the biggest disappointment since George Foster and . . . Jay Cutler? I still can't believe we drafted this dude in the 1st round (Moss). This training camp will be the last shot for Jarvis Moss. Let's hope he doesn't suck (although he probably will).
Prediction: Tim Crowder will be a stud for us this year. Moss will be cut by opening day. One of them will pan out and contribute this year, prbably Crowder. If both do, I would be shocked and elated. Peterson and McBean will not start on opening day. Even if they do, I don't think they will both be starting by the end of the season. Clemons and or Marcus Thomas will take their jobs.
A Key to our season: Sophomore Studs, Junior Jockstraps and a Rookie Riot:
As I have stated previously, the key to this team’s success will be the progression of it’s young core. From the remainder of the ’06 class of Sheffler, Marshall, Kuper and Dumervil to the ’07 remnants of Crowder, Moss, Harris and Marcus Thomas to the epic ’08 classmates of Woodyard, Larsen, Clady, Hillis and Eddie “Money” Royal wit’ cheeses of pepperjack and swiss and even Ryan "Training Room" Torrain. The development of these players will be the key (along with Kyle style). If these guys progress as past seasons have indicated they can, and guys like Crowder and Mofo Williams step-up, we’ll be a salty little squad.
I predict they will step-up. I think Tim Crowder will emerge. I think Harris, Clady, Kuper, Sheffler, Hillis and Royal will all continue playing at a high level and will improve. I also think that Larsen and Woodyard will have breakout seasons – Woodyard is already emerging as a leader and Larsen is just a bad man who will likely see time in all three phases. These guys are all high-character football players with good work ethics and I predict they will continue to get better. They will help keep us competitive even if we lose a lot of games b/c of the D-line and Kyle style.
The rookies are the wild card. They could take this team from being a salty little squad to being a contender – they could also choke on their chickens and drag us into obscurity. One thing’s for sure – with nearly 25 of them (almost 1/3 of the roster) going to camp, a number of them are going to see the field this year.
I predict they will step-up. I think Tim Crowder will emerge. I think Harris, Clady, Kuper, Sheffler, Hillis and Royal will all continue playing at a high level and will improve. I also think that Larsen and Woodyard will have breakout seasons – Woodyard is already emerging as a leader and Larsen is just a bad man who will likely see time in all three phases. These guys are all high-character football players with good work ethics and I predict they will continue to get better. They will help keep us competitive even if we lose a lot of games b/c of the D-line and Kyle style.
The rookies are the wild card. They could take this team from being a salty little squad to being a contender – they could also choke on their chickens and drag us into obscurity. One thing’s for sure – with nearly 25 of them (almost 1/3 of the roster) going to camp, a number of them are going to see the field this year.
Prediction: If Knowshon is offensive Rookie of the Year, we will lose no more than 9 games. If Robert Ayers is defensive rookie of the year, we will not have a losing record. If both of those things happens, we'll have a winning record and a legitimate shot at the playoffs - not necessarily b/c of their impact but b/c this would indicate that Kyle had a good year and that our D-line did it's job in the 3-4 (keeping O-lineman off our linebackers). If both of those things happen and Alphonso Smith, McBath and R.Quinn turn into instastuds, we could contend and McD will be coach of the year - given that he's made a lot of controversial moves and put his nuts out there with conviction, "Hi everybody, I'm Josh. Here are my nuts. Take a long hard look. Yeah, that's it. You've been a naughty little league haven't you?" Finally, if Dick Quinn seals the edge and is a man-child on the field, look for him to be somewhat of a folk hero b/c of his humble attitude and brute strength - a la Lenny from Of Mice and Men - in fact, that's his new nickname, Lenny.
THE Key to our season: Kyle style and the D-line
With the departure of Jay Cutler and the institution of the 3-4 scheme, our season will largely rest on our D-line and the shoulders of Cutler's replacement, Kyle Orton. We all know that Kyle is Smart and has won in this league. We're also all nonplussed about losing the most exciting and talented QB in the game. We all know that, in the 3-4, the D-line is key and that if we don't control the line of scrimage it doesn't matter how good our secondary is b/c the QB will have all day to pick them apart - not to mention the fact that they can just run on you all day.
Prediction: This is tough. Orton has been solid in the past but he is no Jay Cutler. If I had to guess, I'd say we'll run the ball a lot and he'll be somewhere in the middle - 22 TDs, 9 Ints on the high-side, 16 TDs 14 INTs on the low side. The D-line, as it is presently constituted, will not be any good IMO. I hope I'm wrong. I hope Kyle goes for 28-5. I hope Ron Fields turns into a beast at NT and that McBean mcdestroys everyone - I just don't see it happening. The emergence of Orton as a stud is more likely than our defense going all-pro on us. If Orton is a legitimate stud, we'll win at least 7 games. If he is a stud and the d-line is at least above average, we'll win at least 9 games. If Orton is a stud and the D-line is good, we'll win 10 or more games - but don't hold your breath, boys. Orton will probalby be better than expected (like 19/10) and the D-line will be about as mediocre as expected and we'll probalby win between 5 and 8 games.
Things to Watch for in Camp
-The Progression of the rookies: Will Knowshon start on opening day? Will Ayers dominate physically when the pads go on? Will McBath be all over the field? Will Alphonso Smith claim his spot at nickel corner over Jack Mofo Williams?
-Getting defensive: Will Woodyard and Larsen step-up? Is Andra Davis too slow / will Larsen take his spot? How will our D-line stack up to our all-world O-line? How much does B.Dawk have left in the tank? How quickly will the guys grasp the new system? How healthy are Champ and DJ?
-Kyle-style: How well will Orton operate in the offense with live bullets coming at him? How well will he gel with his receivers? Will he keep the job through camp?
-Position battles of Interest: The most interesting position battles are at OLB (ayers, moss, crowder, dumervil, Reid), CB (Mofo, Goodman, Smith, Josh Bell and a bunch of FA rookies), and RB (Buckhalter, Moreno, Jordan, Hillis and Torrain).
-How will McD utilize Sheffler and Hillis?
-Free Agent Rookies to watch: Chris Baker (DE/NT), Everette Pedescleaux (DE), Britton Colquitt (P - little brother of Dustin from KC), Nate Swift WR, and last but not least, the Iraq war veteran Rulon Davis (OLB/DE). He could be a feel good story in the MSM if he plays. He's got good size at 6'5" 281 and from what I've heard a great work ethic and he was a manchild in college at Cal.
-Interesting sidenote - Cutler for Orton will be a perfect study in the philosophy of quarterbacks: system v. stud. Cutler goes to a crappy system to resurect it with his talent while Orton brings average talent to the most coveted of the current systems. Cutler has limited weapons while Orton has many . . . it will be interesting. Personally, I wish it was Stud in System (Cutler still here) but . . . whatevs. It is what it is.
Summary and Final Predictions
I choose to be sunny, but realistic. The keys are QB, DL and the development of our young players. I like what we've done in the secondary and at LB. I also like our RB corp and feel we have the best offensive line in the game.
That said, we have major question marks at QB and along the defensive front - which is the key in a 3-4 scheme. Also, who's our #1 receiver next year if B.Marsh is traded or if he's hurt worse than he's letting on (which is what I suspect as an orthapedic surgeon told my old man that his surgery takes at least a year to heal from - would also explain why he's staying away from the trainers as trust is a weak excuse).
I will pencil Orton down for a slight improvement TD/INT on what he did last year with the Bears - from 18/12 to 21/11 with around 3,400 yards and a 59% completion percentage. I will also assume that our key Defensive players remain healthy and that Champ returns to his old form. I will assume that our running game will be very good and that Knowshon will be a stud at between 1200 - 1800 all-purpose yards. As we are now emphasizing special teams, I will assume that we will be better there as well. Overall, we have a chance to be a solid football team.
Unfortunately, our schedule is brutal, we play Philly, Dallas, Baltimore, NE, Indy, Pitt, Washington, and The G-men. Ouch!!!! I will assume that we will sweep the Raiders and split with the chiefs and chargers - going 4-2 in conference. Cincy on the road and Cleveland at home will be sneaky-tough. Caution says we'll split these, but I think our new schemes will take these teams by surprise and allow us to take both early season games - 6-2. We would do exceedingly well to go .500 for the remainder of this schedule and be at 10-6. On the low-side we could lose them all and go 6-10.
-Absolute Worst: 5-11 (losing to all tough teams and slipping up against the raiders, bengals or browns.
-Absolute Best (realistically): 11-5 (6-2 as I predicted and then somehow go 5-3 v. the rest of that schedule) 10-6 is more realistic, but I'm setting 11-5 as the realistic ceiling
-Kool-aid: 13-3 baby! Orton is a stud, Ayers and Moreno go nuts and our D-line is solid. The secondary is the best in the league and we avoid the injury bug. We catch everyone by surprise w/ our schemes and JMcD is now JMcGenius and the mile high city's a' rockin' while Cutler rots and cries in Chitown.
My Prediction: 10-6. This is optimistic, but I think we can go 4-2 in the division, beat cincy and cleveland and go .500 v. the rest of the schedule. My gut says 7-9 but I chose to ignore it. Go Broncos!!!!!
Thanks for reading, boys. Until next time, keep your reality on the fritz and your Peerality on the blitz.
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